英语翻译The uncertainty in hydrological model covariates,if igno

英语翻译
The uncertainty in hydrological model covariates,if ignored,introduces sys-
tematic bias in the parameters estimated.We introduce here a method to determine
the true value of parameters given uncertainty in model inputs.This method,known as
simulation extrapolation (SIMEX) operates on the basis of an empirical relationship
between parameters and the level of input noise (or uncertainty).The method starts by
generating a series of alternate model inputs by artificially adding white noise in increas-
ing multiples of the known error variance.The resulting parameter sets allow us to formu-
late an empirical relationship between their values and the level of noise present.SIMEX is
based on theory that the trend in alternate parameters can be extrapolated back to the
notional error free zone.
We illustrate the strength of SIMEX in improving skills of predictive models that use
uncertain sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) data over the NINO3 region as predic-
tor to the southern oscillation index (SOI),an alternate measure of the strength of the El
Nino southern oscillation.Our hypothesis is that the higher magnitude of noise in the pre
1960 data period introduces bias to model parameters where SSTA is the input variable.
The relatively error invariant southern oscillation index (SOI) is regressed over SSTA and
calibrated using a subset of the series from 1900 to 1960.We validate the resulting models
using the less erroneous 1960–2003 data period.Overall the application of SIMEX is found
to reduce the residual predictive errors during the validation period.
ª 2007 Elsevier B.V.All rights reserved.

不确定性,在水文模型变量,如果置之不理,介绍了系统的
tematic偏见,在参数估计.我们在这里介绍一种方法,以确定
真正的价值参数特定的不确定因素,在模型的投入.这种方法,被称为
模拟外推（金）的基础上运行的实证关系
之间的参数和水平的输入噪声（或不确定性） .该方法始于
产生了一系列的候补模型投入人工fi cially加入白噪声情况有所不同
荷兰的倍数已知的误差方差.由此产生的参数集,使我们能够formu -
已故的实证关系,他们的价值观和噪音的水平.新加坡国际金融交易所是
理论的基础上,这一趋势在交替的参数,可以推断回给
名义上的误差区.
说明了我们的实力,在新加坡国际金融交易所改进技能的预测模型,即用
不确定的海水表面温度异常（ SSTA的）数据较nino3地区作为预报-
Tor的向南方涛动指数（ SOI的） ,一名候补衡量实力的El
厄尔尼诺南方涛动.我们的假设是,较高幅度的噪音在预
1960年期间的数据介绍了偏见,以模型参数如海表温度异常是输入变量.
相对误差不变南方涛动指数（ SOI的） ,是倒退超过海表温度异常和
校准用的一个子系列,从1900年至1960年.我们验证了由此产生的模式
用较少的错误数据,1960年至2003年期间.整体应用的是新加坡国际金融交易所发现
,以减少残留的预测误差在验证期.
ª 2007年Elsevier公司乙诉,保留所有权利.